Sunday, December 7, 2025

U.S. Actuarial Profession Develops a New Story Explaining Social Security’s Financial Decline Since 1983

After enactment of the Social Security Reform Act of 1983, Social Security actuaries determined OASDI’s (Social Security’s or the system’s) long-range actuarial balance (LRAB) to be .02%, meaning that the system was considered to be in actuarial balance for the “long-range,” which the actuaries defined as the next 75 years. Being in long-range actuarial balance in 1983 was an important consideration for congress in crafting the provisions of the new law, and some members of congress were not terribly happy with the actuaries back then when, just before passage of the new law, they increased the LRAB from -1.82% in 1982 to -2.09% to reflect passage of the Tax Reform Act of 1982.