Trying to Help Households Determine How Much They Can Afford to Spend in Retirement

It’s been almost 14 years since our first post on How Much Can I Afford to Spend in Retirement? This post is our 498^th post. As implied by the title of our website, our primary goal is to help individuals (or financial advisors for those individuals) determine how much they (or their clients) can afford to spend in retirement. Unlike most financial advisors, however, we attempt to do this by applying proven actuarial principles and processes to the decumulation problem.

Does Your Retirement Plan Have Spending Guardrails?

Ongoing planning in retirement involves periodically assessing whether spending may be increased or must be decreased to remain on track. In his recent Kitces.com article, How Communicating Guardrails Withdrawal Strategies Can Improve Client Experience and Decrease Stress, Dr. Derek Tharpe says:

“However, the results of these [Monte Carlo] simulations generally don't account for potential adjustments that could be made along the way (e.g., decreasing withdrawals if market returns are weak and the probability of success falls, or vice versa), making them somewhat less useful for ongoing planning engagements where an advisor could recommend spending changes if they become necessary.”

He also notes:

“Nonetheless, while these thresholds and the dollar amount of potential spending changes might be clear in the advisor's mind, they often go unspoken to the client. Which can lead to tremendous stress for clients, as they might see their Monte Carlo probability of success gradually decline but not know what level of downward spending adjustment would be necessary to bring the probability of success back to an acceptable level.”

If your retirement plan does not have spending guardrails, or your spending guardrails are “uncommunicated” by your financial advisor, you may wish to use the Actuarial Approach set forth in this website, or encourage your advisor to do so. For more discussion of our recommended guardrails, see our post of January 7, 2023.

Financial System Sustainability Superstars

Actuaries measure and monitor the health of financial systems by systematically comparing assets and liabilities and making adjustments when necessary to ensure system sustainability.

You can do the same thing for your personal financial system/retirement plan with assistance of the Actuarial Financial Planner (AFP) and by following the general actuarial process.

For more discussion of the general actuarial process, see our post of August 23, 2023.

Simplify Your Retirement Planning

As discussed in prior posts, the key to successful retirement planning is to

• annually determine your Funded Status,
• monitor it from year to year and
• Adjust spending when your Funded Status falls outside pre-determined guardrails (suggested: 95%, 120%)

In her recent Go Banking Rates article, Hanna Horvath outlines six key steps to building an effective retirement plan and spending budget. We agree that the steps outlined by Ms. Horvath are important, but each of these steps (and much more) is anticipated in the simpler process we recommend. 

Why does simplicity matter? You are much more likely to adopt and follow an approach if it is relatively easy to understand and to implement. Entering relevant data into the Input section of the Actuarial Financial Planner enables you to quickly develop your household Funded Status, and therefore, build a more effective retirement plan and spending budget.

We’ve Updated the Actuarial Financial Planner Models

In response to suggestions from several of our readers, we have added cells to the AFP models to permit inputting of additional non-recurring income and expense items. These new cells will enable you to estimate present values of items such as:

• Social Security survivor benefits
• Survivor benefits under Joint and Survivor annuities
• Future home sales
• Possible future Social Security cuts, and
• Many types of expected future non-recurring expenses

Simple Key to Retirement Planning Success

Key: You should determine your Funded Status annually and monitor it from year to year.

Why? Your Funded Status is a summary statistic that reflects actual experience and can keep you on track to meet your spending goals in retirement.

For more discussion of the importance of determining and monitoring your Funded Status, and why doing so is superior to using the 4% Rule (and its many variations) or typical Monte Carlo models, see our post of April 16,2023.

To determine your Funded Status, download and complete one of our Actuarial Financial Planners from the Spreadsheets section of our website.