The Consequences of Saving Too Much for Retirement
David Ning (US News, May
29, 2013)
"The future is unknown, so it's always good to be conservative with your
money, but you can go too far. Make a carefully thought out plan to make
sure you're saving enough, but don't save too much. Money isn't just for
hoarding, it’s for spending too."
I agree with Mr. Ning. It is critical, however, to make sure that you are
indeed on track to "save enough" before you decide that you have saved too
much and you should be spending more.
The table below might help you determine whether you are on track or not. It
shows the approximate multiple of final year's pay in accumulated savings
needed to provide real dollar annual income during retirement that is
expected to replace a specific percentage of your income prior to retirement
(when added to income from Social Security). This table is based on the
methodology set forth in the article in this website entitled How Much Accumulated Savings Will I Need To Replace My Pre-Retirement Standard of Living? and the following assumptions:
- Social Security Normal Retirement Age 66
- Social Security will replace 28% of final pay at assumed retirement
age/benefit commencement age of 65 and 39.6% of final pay at assumed
retirement age/benefit commencement age of 70 and will be increased by
inflation of 3% per year after assumed retirement/benefit commencement.
- Investment return on accumulated savings of 5% per annum after
retirement. Inflation increases of 3% per annum.
- No other sources of retirement income (other than accumulated savings and
Social Security)
- Death occurs at age 95
- No amounts intended to be left to heirs on death
These are just approximate amounts of accumulated savings needed based on
the assumptions above. Changing any of these assumptions would change the
multiples needed. For example, if a person had defined benefit income or
had fixed annuity income, the amounts needed would be reduced. In addition,
if a person decided to purchase a life annuity with some or all of her
accumulated savings at retirement, multiples of pay needed may be less as
insurance company pricing is based on an assumption of death closer to
average life expectancy. In addition, Social Security benefits may replace
lower or higher percentages than assumed for this table.
But the bottom line is that if you don't have other significant pension income
and you want to approximately maintain your standard of living in retirement,
you probably don't need to be terribly concerned about the problem of
"over-saving" until your accumulated savings start to exceed something like ten
times your current compensation.
Achieving a Higher Safe Withdrawal Rate with the Target Percentage Adjustment
David M. Zolt (Journal of Financial Planning)
Nice article by Mr. Zolt, who is a financial planner and another member of
the Society of Actuaries.
"A much higher initial withdrawal rate than previously thought possible can
be achieved without increasing the probability of failure as long as the
retiree reduces or eliminates the inflation increase for years indicated by
the Target Percentage™. The Target Percentage is developed and used to
determine whether the portfolio is ahead of or behind target at any point
during retirement. If the portfolio is ahead of target, the full inflation
increase is taken in that year. If the portfolio is behind target, the
inflation increase for that year is reduced or eliminated."
I like the approach suggested by Mr. Zolt because it is not as static ("set
and forget" as defined by Wade Pfau) as the traditional safe withdrawal rate
method. Adjustments to withdrawals are made (as frequently as annually) to
take into account "good" and "bad" years and to keep the spending plan from
veering off the tracks.
Note that Mr. Zolt's approach (or something similar) can easily be
accomplished using the suggested process and spreadsheet found on this
website. As an example, let's assume that a retiree would like to have a
higher initial withdrawal rate and is comfortable with future increases of
CPI minus 1% rather than full CPI increases. Let's further assume that she
believes the best estimate assumptions for future experience are 5% annual
investment return, 3% per year inflation and a 30-year withdrawal period.
Also assume no annuity income and no bequest motive. The retiree runs
the New and Improved Spending Calculator on this site with her best estimate
assumptions which determines an initial withdrawal rate of 4.34%. She
doesn't like that rate and determines that she can live with lower inflation
protection (1% per year less), so she inputs 2% annual desired increases in
the spreadsheet (but retains the 3% inflation assumption to measure the
potential effect on future inflation-adjusted withdrawals). This yields an
initial withdrawal rate of 4.92%, which is much more to her liking (about
13% higher compared with Mr. Zolt's 10%). She also looks at
the inflation-adjusted runout tab on the spreadsheet and sees that if
experience is exactly as assumed, her withdrawals will decrease in inflation
adjusted dollars (by almost 25% in year 30).
As discussed in the original March, 2010 article in this
website, our hypothetical retiree needs to employ an algorythm (rules) to
adjust for actual experience and changes in assumptions and other input
items each year. She likes Mr. Zolt's basic approach so she decides
that she will use the following rules to determine subsequent year's
withdrawals:
- If the preliminary withdrawal rate falls inside the "corridor", she will
increase her withdrawal amount for the previous year by CPI-1%
- If the preliminary withdrawal rate falls above the high end of the
corridor, she will increase her withdrawal amount for the previous year by
the full CPI.
- If the preliminary withdrawal rate falls below the low end of the
corridor, she will withdraw the greater of i) the average of the preliminary
withdrawal rate and the expected withdrawal rate or ii) the same dollar
amount withdrawn for the previous year (i.e., no CPI increase).
For this purpose, the preliminary withdrawal rate is the rate produced by
running the spreadsheet at the beginning of the year based on assumptions
and new asset data as of that date (and presumably continuing with desired
increases of CPI minus 1%), the expected withdrawal rate is the rate for
year two shown in Column M of the previous year's run-out tab and the
corridor could be something like 95% to 105% of the expected withdrawal
rate.
Note that I am not necessarily advocating this approach. I'm only
illustrating that something similar to what Mr. Zolt suggests can be
accomplished with the tools set forth in this website.
Mr. Zolt has graciously provided the following spreadsheet for those who
would like to build their own target percentages. [Target_Percentage_Calc_2013_05_24.xls]
Want a Happy Retirement? Don't Just Guess About What You'll Need
Chuck Saletta (DailyFinance, May 13, 2013)
"In
its research, EBRI found that people who either used online
retirement calculators or who worked with financial advisers were far more
prepared to have a successful retirement than those who didn't. On the flip
side, those who relied primarily on guessing at how much they'd need to cover
their expenses wound up far worse prepared for their retirement than the typical
person."
Not sure that the EBRI research actually measured happiness, but the
conclusions in this article are 100% consistent with the themes expressed in
this website--In these days when individuals are much more responsible for their
own retirement, you need to do the retirement math--you need to crunch your
numbers based on your financial situation. And how much you can spend in
retirement is just the other side of the retirement planning coin of
how much you need to save to replace your pre-retirement standard of living.
Is the 4% Rule Folly?
(AdvisorOne, April 29, 2013)
Another excellent article by Michael Finke, professor and coordinator of
the doctoral program in personal financial planning at Texas Tech
University debunking the 4% Rule. Mr. Finke criticizes the "shortfall
analysis" used to develop the 4% Rule and concludes that use of this rule by
individuals or advisors has a tendency to result in a more conservative
spending strategy than necessary. Mr. Finke says, "That money in the bank
[at death] over and above the desired legacy is the money left on the table
in the game of retirement living."
Finke refers to a 2008 study by Olivia Mitchell and others which estimated,
"that the average retiree could improve expected happiness in retirement by
as much as 50% by adopting a blended annuitization and investment strategy."