The Consequences of Saving Too Much for Retirement
David Ning (US News, May 
29, 2013)
"The future is unknown, so it's always good to be conservative with your 
 money, but you can go too far. Make a carefully thought out plan to make 
 sure you're saving enough, but don't save too much. Money isn't just for 
 hoarding, it’s for spending too."
I agree with Mr. Ning. It is critical, however, to make sure that you are 
 indeed on track to "save enough" before you decide that you have saved too 
 much and you should be spending more.
The table below might help you determine whether you are on track or not. It 
 shows the approximate multiple of final year's pay in accumulated savings 
 needed to provide real dollar annual income during retirement that is 
 expected to replace a specific percentage of your income prior to retirement 
 (when added to income from Social Security). This table is based on the 
 methodology set forth in the article in this website entitled How Much  Accumulated Savings Will I Need To Replace My Pre-Retirement Standard of  Living? and the following assumptions:
- Social Security Normal Retirement Age 66
- Social Security will replace 28% of final pay at assumed retirement 
 age/benefit commencement age of 65 and 39.6% of final pay at assumed 
 retirement age/benefit commencement age of 70 and will be increased by 
 inflation of 3% per year after assumed retirement/benefit commencement.
- Investment return on accumulated savings of 5% per annum after 
 retirement. Inflation increases of 3% per annum.
- No other sources of retirement income (other than accumulated savings and 
 Social Security)
- Death occurs at age 95
- No amounts intended to be left to heirs on death
  
These are just approximate amounts of accumulated savings needed based on 
 the assumptions above.  Changing any of these assumptions would change the 
 multiples needed.   For example, if a person had defined benefit income or 
 had fixed annuity income, the amounts needed would be reduced.  In addition, 
 if a person decided to purchase a life annuity with some or all of her 
 accumulated savings at retirement, multiples of pay needed may be less as 
 insurance company pricing is based on an assumption of death closer to 
 average life expectancy.  In addition, Social Security benefits may replace 
 lower or higher percentages than assumed for this table.
But the bottom line is that if you don't have other significant pension income 
and you want to approximately maintain your standard of living in retirement, 
you probably don't need to be terribly concerned about the problem of 
"over-saving" until your accumulated savings start to exceed something like ten 
times your current compensation. 
 
 
            
        
          
        
          
        
Achieving a Higher Safe Withdrawal Rate with the Target Percentage Adjustment 
David M. Zolt (Journal of Financial Planning)
Nice article by Mr. Zolt, who is a financial planner and another member of 
 the Society of Actuaries.
"A much higher initial withdrawal rate than previously thought possible can 
 be achieved without increasing the probability of failure as long as the 
 retiree reduces or eliminates the inflation increase for years indicated by 
 the Target Percentage™.   The Target Percentage is developed and used to 
 determine whether the portfolio is ahead of or behind target at any point 
 during retirement. If the portfolio is ahead of target, the full inflation 
 increase is taken in that year. If the portfolio is behind target, the 
 inflation increase for that year is reduced or eliminated."
I like the approach suggested by Mr. Zolt because it is not as static ("set 
 and forget" as defined by Wade Pfau) as the traditional safe withdrawal rate 
 method.  Adjustments to withdrawals are made (as frequently as annually) to 
 take into account "good" and "bad" years and to keep the spending plan from 
 veering off the tracks.
Note that Mr. Zolt's approach (or something similar) can easily be 
 accomplished using the suggested process and spreadsheet found on this 
 website.  As an example, let's assume that a retiree would like to have a 
 higher initial withdrawal rate and is comfortable with future increases of 
 CPI minus 1% rather than full CPI increases.  Let's further assume that she 
 believes the best estimate assumptions for future experience are 5% annual 
 investment return, 3% per year inflation and a 30-year withdrawal period.  
 Also assume no annuity income and no bequest motive.    The retiree runs 
 the New and Improved Spending Calculator on this site with her best estimate 
 assumptions which determines an initial withdrawal rate of 4.34%.  She 
 doesn't like that rate and determines that she can live with lower inflation 
 protection (1% per year less), so she inputs 2% annual desired increases in 
 the spreadsheet (but retains the 3% inflation assumption to measure the 
 potential effect on future inflation-adjusted withdrawals).  This yields an 
 initial withdrawal rate of 4.92%, which is much more to her liking (about 
 13% higher compared with Mr. Zolt's 10%).  She also looks at 
 the inflation-adjusted runout tab on the spreadsheet and sees that if 
 experience is exactly as assumed, her withdrawals will decrease in inflation 
 adjusted dollars (by almost 25% in year 30).
As discussed in the original March, 2010 article in this 
 website, our hypothetical retiree needs to employ an algorythm (rules) to 
 adjust for actual experience and changes in assumptions and other input 
 items each year.   She likes Mr. Zolt's basic approach so she decides 
 that she will use the following rules to determine subsequent year's 
 withdrawals:
- If the preliminary withdrawal rate falls inside the "corridor", she will 
 increase her withdrawal amount for the previous year by CPI-1%
- If the preliminary withdrawal rate falls above the high end of the 
 corridor, she will increase her withdrawal amount for the previous year by 
 the full CPI.
- If the preliminary withdrawal rate falls below the low end of the 
 corridor, she will withdraw the greater of i) the average of the preliminary 
 withdrawal rate and the expected withdrawal rate or ii) the same dollar 
 amount withdrawn for the previous year (i.e., no CPI increase). 
For this purpose, the preliminary withdrawal rate is the rate produced by 
 running the spreadsheet at the beginning of the year based on assumptions 
 and new asset data as of that date (and presumably continuing with desired 
 increases of CPI minus 1%), the expected withdrawal rate is the rate for 
 year two shown in Column M of the previous year's run-out tab and the 
 corridor could be something like 95% to 105% of the expected withdrawal 
 rate.
Note that I am not necessarily advocating this approach.  I'm only 
 illustrating that something similar to what Mr. Zolt suggests can be 
accomplished with the tools set forth in this website.
Mr. Zolt has graciously provided the following spreadsheet for those who 
would like to build their own target percentages. [Target_Percentage_Calc_2013_05_24.xls] 
 
 
            
        
          
        
          
        
Want a Happy Retirement?  Don't Just Guess About What You'll Need 
Chuck Saletta (DailyFinance, May 13, 2013)
"In
its research, EBRI found that people who either used online
retirement calculators or who worked with financial advisers were far more 
prepared to have a successful retirement than those who didn't. On the flip 
side, those who relied primarily on guessing at how much they'd need to cover 
their expenses wound up far worse prepared for their retirement than the typical 
person."
Not sure that the EBRI research actually measured happiness, but the 
conclusions in this article are 100% consistent with the themes expressed in 
this website--In these days when individuals are much more responsible for their 
own retirement, you need to do the retirement math--you need to crunch your 
numbers based on your financial situation.  And how much you can spend in 
retirement is just the other side of the retirement planning coin of
how much you need to save to replace your pre-retirement standard of living.
 
 
 
            
        
          
        
          
        
          
        
Is the 4% Rule Folly? 
(AdvisorOne, April 29, 2013)
Another excellent article by Michael Finke, professor and coordinator of 
 the doctoral program in personal financial planning at Texas Tech 
 University debunking the 4% Rule.  Mr. Finke criticizes the "shortfall 
 analysis" used to develop the 4% Rule and concludes that use of this rule by 
 individuals or advisors has a tendency to result in a more conservative 
 spending strategy than necessary.  Mr. Finke says, "That money in the bank 
 [at death] over and above the desired legacy is the money left on the table 
 in the game of retirement living."
Finke refers to a 2008 study by Olivia Mitchell and others which estimated, 
 "that the average retiree could improve expected happiness in retirement by 
 as much as 50% by adopting a blended annuitization and investment strategy."